FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS COVID19 INFECTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN

The pandemic of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 is a challenge for the health systems worldwide. To adequately address the progressing challenges at each step of the epidemic, the healthcare managers have to plan resources accordingly. Thus, it is important to provide decision makers with a timely COVID-19 epidemic forecast. This article provides an overview of the classical epidemiological models and time-series analysis models for predicting the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world. On the example of data on the spread of a new coronavirus infection in the Republic of Bashkortostan, SIRD and ARIMA models were build. Short-term forecasts (10 days ahead) of new cases of COVID-19 were received, as well as forecasts of recoveries. The obtained forecasting results indicate the relative accuracy of the modeled predictions: the average absolute percentage error for 10 days of forecasting infections in the Republic of Bashkortostan according to the SIRD model was 5.28%, according to the ARIMA model - 4.65%, and for cases of recovery according to the SIRD model - 15%.

short-term forecasting, COVID-19, infection, recovery, ARIMA, SIRD

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