Prediction of the lifetime outcome of the disease in COVID-19 convalescents
Abstract
Timely diagnosis will make it possible to predict the long-term consequences of the disease and to improve the quality of life of COVID-19 convalescents.
The aim of the study is to predict the risk of developing pneumofibrosis in COVID-19 convalescents.
Material and methods. The object of the study is COVID-19 convalescents aged 23-87 years old. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 (N=14) with pneumofibrosis, group 2 (N=20) without pneumofibrosis. The inputs to the model were predictors with prognostic significance (p<0.05), evaluated in patients at discharge. The simulation was carried out by constructing classification trees.
Results. The way out of the constructed mathematical model is the development of pneumofibrosis. The practical significance of the developed algorithms lies in the fact that, based on the values of laboratory and radiological diagnostic methods included in the standard for diagnosing a patient with COVID-19, it is possible to predict with high probability the risk of developing pneumofibrosis of the lungs in the outcome of the disease, which allows us to determine the algorithm for managing convalescences.
About the Authors
Ya. A. Safronova
ФГБОУ ВО «Оренбургский государственный медицинский университет» Минздрава России
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. S. Pankov
ФГБОУ ВО «Оренбургский государственный медицинский университет» Минздрава России
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Safronova Ya.A., Pankov A.S. Prediction of the lifetime outcome of the disease in COVID-19 convalescents. Bashkortostan Medical Journal. 2024;19(4):13-17. (In Russ.)
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