EVALUATION OF IMMUNE DYSREGULATION IN THE ANALYSIS OF CHEMOKINE AND INTERLEUKIN LINKS IN PATIENTS WITH ARI USING A ROC CURVE

Abstract

The article studies the state of the immunological system and builds a ROC model for the analysis of immune dysregulation with persistent rhinitis in young patients. The study was conducted at the Federal State Budgetary Institution «301 VKG of the Ministry of Defense» in Khabarovsk for the period 2019-2021.

The purpose of the study to identify imbalances in the immune system in young patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI), and to develop a mathematical model of ROC analysis to use at the stages of hospitalization.

Material and methods. The study included 120 patients, 90 of whom had clinical manifestations of ARI of various etiologies and 30 were healthy young people. Verification of ARI was carried out by the PCR method, and the concentrations of immunological factors were also determined using ELISA methods.

Results and discussion. In the discriminatory analysis of statistical processing, only 13 clinical and laboratory parameters were identified as factors determining the development of immune dysregulation with persistence of rhinitis (p <0.001). For the selected parameters, diagnostic values were calculated and a mathematical model of the immune dysregulation model with persistence of rhinitis was constructed, which has a high level of reliability – 95%.

Conclusion. The ROC model of immune dysregulation analysis with a risk ≥ 80.0% will form an imbalance of immunological factors (MCP-1 (CCL2) levels ≥ 360.0 ng/ml & IL-8 ≥ 10.9 pg/ml) affecting the persistence of rhinitis and the likelihood of developing a relapse of the disease, the so-called positive result.